Asim Munir Was on the Phone All Night. Iran Hasn’t Answered

Breaking: The Islamabad Accord
On the night of April 5–6, as Trump’s original Monday deadline expired, Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir was in continuous contact with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Reuters and Axios, citing U.S., Israeli, and regional sources, reported that a ceasefire framework has been shared with both sides. It has been tentatively dubbed the “Islamabad Accord.” :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}

The proposal is structured in two phases. Phase one: an immediate ceasefire, with the Strait of Hormuz reopened and 15–20 days to finalise a broader settlement. The initial understanding would be structured as a memorandum of understanding, finalised electronically through Pakistan — the sole communication channel. Phase two: a comprehensive deal addressing the war’s root causes, with final in-person talks in Islamabad. Key issues on the table include Iran’s highly enriched uranium — either removal or dilution — in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets.

Mediators are exploring interim confidence-building measures: partial easing of Hormuz restrictions and limited steps on uranium.

A source told Reuters that “all elements need to be agreed today.” But Iran has yet to formally commit. Iranian officials have expressed reservations, citing past ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon where hostilities resumed despite formal agreements. Iran expert Vali Nasr told CNN the Pakistan-backed talks could be “a trap targeting Iranian officials.” Pakistan’s foreign office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi declined comment. There was no immediate response from U.S. or Iranian officials.

The backstory matters. Trump has called Asim Munir his “favourite field marshal.” Pakistan joined Trump’s Board of Peace and nominated him for the Nobel Prize. Pakistan sits on the UN Security Council and has good relations with all five permanent members. But the Iran war is deeply unpopular in Pakistan, which has the world’s second-largest Shia Muslim population after Iran. And this is the fourth time a ceasefire framework has been floated since the war began. The 15-point U.S. plan was also transmitted through Pakistan — and rejected. Iran refused to send officials to Islamabad, calling it a potential “trap.” Turkey and Egypt explored Doha and Istanbul as alternatives. Each time, the pattern has been the same: framework shared, Iran hesitates, deadline extended, war continues.

At the time of filing, the Islamabad Accord remains unsigned. Iran has neither accepted nor rejected it. Trump’s Tuesday 8pm ET deadline — “Power Plant Day” — is hours away. What follows are the five scenarios that were already in play before the Accord was tabled. The Accord does not replace them. It sits on top of them, as either the off-ramp both sides need or the fourth iteration of the extend-and-negotiate cycle this series has documented.

What India Stands to Lose
India imports 60 per cent of its cooking gas, and 90 per cent of those imports come from the Gulf via Hormuz. The Indian Navy’s Operation Urja Suraksha is escorting tankers ship-by-ship through waters the IRGC controls. The Pine Gas waited three weeks before its crew agreed to transit a route near Larak Island, believed to be mined. Iran’s embassy in India tweeted: “Our Indian friends are in safe hands, no worries.” The 485 seafarers still waiting would like that to be true.

The Five Scenarios
Scenario 1: Trump extends again (Probability: Medium-High)
Three extensions already. The Islamabad Accord gives him a new reason: “productive talks.” The WSJ report suggests his team has concluded reopening Hormuz militarily exceeds his timeline. For India: more weeks of managed crisis, one tanker at a time.

Scenario 2: Tuesday strikes on power plants (Probability: Medium)
Trump named Tuesday specifically. If the Accord fails, stated targets: power plants, bridges, Kharg Island, desalination plants. Iran warned that if power infrastructure is hit, the Strait will be “completely closed” — no exemptions for “friendly nations.” For India: the 18 ships are trapped indefinitely. LPG imports halt. QatarEnergy’s CEO told Reuters that Ras Laffan damage could take three to five years to repair.

Scenario 3: Iran pre-empts (Probability: Low-Medium)
Sunday’s Gulf strikes were “first phase.” CSIS warned of cyber threats against U.S. energy infrastructure. Turkey’s Fidan warned Israel may be the “spoiler.” For India: further Iranian strikes on UAE and Bahrain put nine million Indian workers directly at risk. The 600,000 who returned are the ones who could leave. The ones who remain cannot.

Scenario 4: Oman safe passage protocol (Probability: Low-Medium)
Iran’s vetting system is already operating. Ships hug the Iranian coastline. India’s Operation Urja Suraksha is, in practice, India already working within Iran’s toll booth. For India: this formalises the status quo. It is the least disruptive outcome — and possibly the most realistic, regardless of what happens to the Islamabad Accord.

Scenario 5: The Islamabad Accord succeeds (Probability: Low, but higher than yesterday)
A 45-day ceasefire, Hormuz reopened immediately, uranium addressed in parallel, final talks in Pakistan. If it works, it is the only scenario that restores normal shipping. But Iran hasn’t committed. Iranian officials cite Gaza and Lebanon as evidence that ceasefires don’t hold. And Israel — which has its own war aims and no diplomatic relationship with Pakistan — is absent from the framework entirely. For India: the best possible outcome. Also the least likely. But for the first time in 37 days, a framework with specific terms exists on paper, with a named mediator who was on the phone all night.

The Bottom Line
Araghchi’s Bushehr warning uses geography to turn Gulf allies into restraint advocates. Iran’s selective Hormuz exemptions split the global coalition. Iran’s ghost fleet exports $3 billion in oil through the Strait it has closed to everyone else. Planet Labs’ satellite blackout — retroactive to March 9 — has removed the last tool for independent verification.

On Khabarfoori, the comments under the “Power Plant Day” headline say what the diplomats will not. “Open the Strait for the sake of our children.” “Hit them, Uncle.” “If tonight nothing happens, they’re negotiating behind the scenes. If he starts hitting cities, there’s no hope.”

In Mumbai, the Jag Vasant arrived on April 1 after clearing Hormuz under Indian Navy escort. In Mangalore and Visakhapatnam, redirected cargoes are being split between ports. In the homes that depend on those red cylinders, nobody is discussing the Islamabad Accord or Trump’s Tuesday deadline. They are checking whether the gas will last the week.

VK Shashikumar is a former roving foreign affairs and war correspondent.