Why are India-Canada Relations Strained?

Note: What follows is based on a video interview that we conducted with Mr. Kugelman. It was conducted before news emerged of a U.S. indictment against an Indian national for allegedly attempting to assassinate a Khalistan supporter on U.S soil.

The India-Canada relationship is arguably at one of its lowest points ever, primarily due to the Khalistan issue. Tensions have been rising over the last few years, but despite this, there has been significant progress in strengthening cooperation, particularly in commercial relations. Bilateral trade volume, for instance, increased by about 50 percent between 2021 and 2022. Moreover, people-to-people ties have remained strong, exemplified by the high number of Indian students in Canada and robust tourism in both countries. Strategic views have also coalesced, particularly regarding the challenges posed by China.

However, what were previously insulated areas of the relationship, such as commercial partnerships and people-to-people ties, are now impacted by the broader tensions in India-Canada ties. This is evident in the suspension of trade negotiations and new trade deals, likely due to the Khalistan issue. Additionally, measures like suspending visa processing and issuing travel advisories have negatively affected these ties.

The motivations behind Prime Minister Trudeau's position on the Khalistan issue are complex. It is clear that Canada has concerns about foreign meddling in its domestic affairs, particularly from countries like China and Russia. Trudeau's administration emphasizes Canada's autonomy in dealing with affairs within its borders, and that entails resisting influence from other nations, including India. This stance is significant in understanding the current dynamics with the Khalistan issue.

Furthermore, the Canadian government's approach to peaceful protests and demonstrations, even those by pro-Khalistan elements, suggests a reluctance to crack down on these groups, despite pressure from India. 

In terms of perceptions of terrorism, there is a notable difference between how Islamist terrorism and Khalistani terrorism are viewed in Canada, and in the West more broadly. Islamist terrorist groups are seen as direct threats to the West, having carried out attacks in both Western countries and India. In contrast, Khalistani elements are not perceived as posing a direct threat to Western nations. This perception has evolved over time, as evidenced by the change in how the West viewed Khalistani extremism in the 1980s compared to now.

The relationship between Canada and India remains fraught, with Canada showing little inclination to address India's concerns actively. This stance is influenced by Canada's broader political class's views on perceived external meddling. However, from an Indian perspective, the lack of Canadian action or acknowledgment of India's concerns is puzzling and problematic.

To de-escalate the situation, it would be beneficial for both Canada and India to pledge against further retaliations or escalations. Bringing back sidelined issues, such as trade negotiations, could help restore goodwill and trust. However, a formal dialogue on the Khalistan issue is unlikely at this stage.

Finally, there is a need for countries like Canada to at least acknowledge India's concerns over threats that might be perceived differently in the West. Ultimately, empathy and a willingness to engage in serious dialogue are key to resolving such complex issues.